My research focuses on real-time forecasting of epidemics. Since 2017, I have forecasted seasonal influenza in the United States. During the flu season (Oct - May), I participate in the CDC’s FluSight challenge with my model UA-EpiCos. Recently, my forecasting efforts have been focused on predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths at the state and national levels. My model (UA-EpiCovDA) is contributed as part of the CDC’s ensemble model through the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

EpiCovDA codes will be updated on my GitHub.

UA-EpiCovDA Cumulative Death Forecasts (95% prediction intervals given by colored fans). Truth (black) from the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic shared under a CC BY 4.0 license.